Death to the Annual Outlook

Death to the Annual Outlook

The last month is the time of the year when people forward me various annual outlooks they have received from various sources and I am constantly being asked about the validity of forecast x vs forecast y. Being born in the year of the Dragon and accordingly having...
Oil hits US69

Oil hits US69

Economic predictions are a hard thing to do and a work in progress for me. I’ve been doing them for some time on my annual forecasts but of course, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating. Of late, I’ve been attempting to forecast pricing with...
Monkey or Rooster? Answer: Both.

Monkey or Rooster? Answer: Both.

So officially today, we Enter the Rooster. Or do we? I am not yet convinced that what we are seeing (especially in the USA under Trump) represents the Rooster. Rather, this is the vestiges of the Bing Shen finally showing its true colours (with some intermingling of...